Sandy Comes to Town

Posted by – October 28, 2012

Estimated fraction of population experiencing power outages

A map of power outages as predicted by Guikema’s model based on the official National Hurricane Center track and intensity forecast from 18UTC (3 p.m. EDT) on Saturday, Oct. 27.

Johns Hopkins researcher Seth Guikema has used historical storm statistics to estimate that Hurricane Sandy will likely cause 10 million people to lose power, from Virginia Beach to New York City. Guikema’s model uses outage data from 11 hurricanes to estimate the fraction of customers who will lose power, based on expected gust wind speed, expected duration of strong winds greater than 20 meters per second, and population density.

The impacts of this so-called FrankenStorm are also likely to include record-breaking snow in the West Virginia mountains and a 6 to 11ft storm surge in New York Harbor. NOAA estimates that storm damages could be over $1 billion.

Good time to make a last-minute run for batteries and candles!